Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 30 June 2026, the Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila will record its peak daily temperature, a single metric that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability for the "YES" outcome sits at 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the favoured range, despite PAGASA’s short-range guidance of 25–33°C and a consensus leaning heavily toward 29–31°C outcomes[1].

Historically, June in Manila sees daily highs drop from 91°F to 89°F (32.8°C to 31.7°C), rarely exceeding 95°F (35°C) or falling below 84°F (28.9°C)[2]. While Metro Manila recently hit a record 36.0°C at NAIA on 29 June 2026, the all-time peak for the city remains 38.8°C, recorded at the same airport in April 2024[3][5]. This recent spike indicates the underdog (higher temperatures) has tangible value, contrasting with the 0% implied probability that ignores such volatility.

Traders must monitor PAGASA’s convective activity forecasts and real-time Wunderground updates, as variable weather can swing temperatures by several degrees within hours[1]. The recent 36.0°C reading at NAIA, just one day prior to the settlement date, serves as a critical catalyst that challenges the consensus view and suggests the market may be mispricing the likelihood of extreme heat[3]. With the frontrunner outcome at 29°C holding 62% of the market, the underdog of higher temperatures offers a contrarian angle for those betting on the recent heatwave trend to persist[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.