Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25?

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Market context

Mexico City's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Benito Juárez International Airport, the official measurement station for the capital. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a technical issue or extreme uncertainty about which bracket will resolve. May sits in Mexico City's late dry season, transitioning toward the onset of summer rains, with historical highs typically ranging between 28–32°C depending on atmospheric conditions and cloud cover.

Climatological records from the airport station reveal that May temperatures in Mexico City rarely exceed 33°C, with the month's average high around 29°C. The city's elevation at 2,250 metres moderates extreme heat compared to lower-altitude Mexican regions. Over the past decade, May 25 specifically has seen highs between 26–31°C, with no exceptional outliers recorded. This historical consistency provides a narrow band for forecasting, though individual year variation remains material depending on whether high-pressure systems dominate or moisture-laden air masses move in from the Gulf.

The primary catalyst affecting resolution will be the large-scale atmospheric pattern establishing itself by late May 2026. Traders should monitor seasonal climate outlooks from Mexico's National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) released in April, which typically forecast whether the pre-monsoon period will favour drier, warmer conditions or earlier moisture incursion. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific will influence this pattern. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may lack sufficient trader participation to price ranges rationally; value likely exists in whichever bracket historical May 25 data most strongly supports.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.