Highest temperature in Miami on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing zero probability that Miami International Airport will record a peak temperature of 32°C (90°F) or higher on 13 August 2026. This represents an extreme underestimation of a routine summer day in south Florida, where August temperatures regularly exceed this threshold by a substantial margin. The crowd's positioning suggests either a technical misunderstanding of the settlement mechanics or an error in initial pricing.

Miami's August climate is characterised by consistent heat and humidity. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that daily highs in August at Miami International Airport average 32–33°C, with temperatures below 32°C occurring in fewer than 5% of August days over the past three decades. A single day failing to reach this baseline would require either an extraordinary weather system—such as a major tropical cyclone bringing sustained cloud cover and rainfall—or a measurement error at the station itself. The probability of either scenario on any given August date sits materially above zero.

Traders should monitor tropical activity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center in the weeks preceding the settlement date, as an active Atlantic hurricane season could theoretically produce the atmospheric conditions necessary to suppress peak temperatures. However, even significant tropical systems typically allow afternoon temperatures to climb substantially. The current 0% probability reflects a fundamental disconnect from climatological norms and offers clear value for positions betting on temperatures reaching or exceeding the lower threshold ranges.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.