Highest temperature in Munich on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich’s airport station is trading as a **clear underdog for a very hot outcome**, with the market’s 0% YES implying the crowd sees the chance of an extreme August 10 high as effectively nil. That looks harsh versus the climate record: Munich’s August average high is about 24-25°C, but the city has still posted far hotter spikes, with monthly records around 37-38°C and a 10 August record high of 35.9°C in one climatology set.[1][17] For a temperature band market, the consensus usually sits around the seasonal norm rather than the tail outcome, so the value case is generally on *moderate warmth* rather than on a true heatwave or a very cool day.[1][17]

The key handicapper’s angle is that the settlement uses the **Weather Underground Daily Observations** table, not the summary high/low box, so intraday spikes and station-specific readings matter more than the headline forecast panel.[3] At 7am UTC on the morning of settlement, current conditions and same-day forecast data can still shift as the European day unfolds; Munich’s highs in August are often in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, but convective warmth can push readings well above average on a given day.[2][12][17] If the weather pattern stays ordinary, the market’s favourite is the central temperature range, while a contrarian longshot is any band tied to a brief afternoon surge above the usual August ceiling.[1][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.