Highest temperature in Munich on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature at Munich Airport on 11 August 2026 at 0% probability for any given range, suggesting the crowd expects settlement to fall outside whatever bracket this particular option covers. Munich's August climate typically produces daily highs between 24–28°C, with occasional heat waves pushing into the low 30s. The specific resolution methodology—drawing from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—introduces a technical constraint that traders should verify against historical discrepancies between those two data sources at the Munich station.

August temperatures in Munich have historically shown modest year-to-year variation. The city's 30-year average high for mid-August sits around 25°C, though the warmest Augusts on record have seen peaks exceeding 32°C during European heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either the range in question sits well outside plausible outcomes, or liquidity and participation remain thin enough that no trader has yet positioned substantially. Comparable German airport stations show similar August patterns, with extreme heat events remaining statistically infrequent but not unprecedented.

The key dependency is European weather patterns in early August 2026. High-pressure systems tracking northward from the Mediterranean can drive Munich temperatures sharply upward within days, whilst Atlantic low-pressure systems maintain cooler conditions. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting models from late July onwards, particularly any signals of sustained continental heat. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 11 August, meaning final observations will be recorded in the morning hours; any overnight cooling will not factor into the daily high.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.