Highest temperature in Munich on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's peak temperature on 15 August 2026 will be measured at the airport weather station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

August temperatures in Munich typically range between 18–27°C, with historical data showing that mid-August highs rarely exceed 30°C except during heat waves. The city's 30-year average for this date sits around 24°C. The 0% implied probability across all ranges indicates the market has not yet attracted substantive trading activity; once bids and offers materialise, the consensus will likely cluster around the 24–26°C band based on climatological norms. Any trader entering early faces wide spreads but potential value if they identify which temperature bracket the market will eventually favour once volume arrives.

European weather patterns in summer 2026 remain unknowable at present, though seasonal forecasting typically shows August as stable relative to June or July. Traders should monitor late-July atmospheric conditions and any emerging heat dome forecasts from meteorological services in early August, as these would shift expectations materially. The resolution mechanism's reliance on the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures creates a technical dependency worth noting—discrepancies between the two sources have occurred historically, though they are uncommon at major airport stations.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.