Highest temperature in Munich on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich’s highest temperature on 18 August looks set to be a low-scoring weather market, with the implied probability at 0% YES and the consensus leaning strongly to the cooler bands. Short-range forecasts in circulation cluster the day’s peak around the upper teens to low 20s Celsius, with one market-linked briefing citing ECMWF and German Weather Service guidance near 19–20°C and AccuWeather showing a cloudy, showery day with a forecast high of 19°C. That leaves the favourite comfortably in the sub-20°C ranges, while the warmer brackets look like the underdog unless the cloud breaks earlier than expected.[1][2]

That reading fits the broader August profile for Munich, where long-run averages usually sit around the low- to mid-20s Celsius, but daily highs can undershoot materially on unsettled days. Recent comparable late-summer cases matter less than the setup on the day: a cloudier, wetter airmass suppresses the afternoon peak, and the settlement rule makes the Munich Airport Station daily observations table decisive rather than any headline day-high figure.[1][2][3]

For traders, the key catalyst is not a scheduled announcement but the evolution of the local forecast through Tuesday morning: cloud cover, shower timing, and any clearing after dawn will determine whether the airport reaches the low 20s or stalls below that. The market also resolves from the highest reading recorded up to 12:00 UTC, so an early warm burst can matter more than the full-day headline. If the early observations stay around the forecasted 19–20°C zone, consensus should remain anchored to the cooler range and the current 0% YES looks more like a tail price than a fair reflection of a breakout scenario.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on August 18? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.