Highest temperature in Munich on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport Station’s highest temperature on 6 August is trading as a **clear underdog**, with the market showing **0% implied probability** for YES. In practical terms, the consensus is that the day will *not* reach the specific range the market is implying, so any value case sits with the contrarian side only if the afternoon peak surprises to the upside.

Seasonally, Munich in early August is usually warm rather than hot. AccuWeather’s monthly view shows 6 August forecast around **80°F/62°F** and an August pattern with daily highs mostly in the low-to-mid 70s °F, while WeatherSpark says average August highs ease from about **75°F to 70°F** as the month progresses, with rare excursions above **87°F**.[1][4] That framing favours the underdog if the strike range is set above the norm, but it also leaves room for a midday spike if skies clear and wind stays light.

The main catalysts are short-term weather drivers: cloud cover, showers, and any convective build-up that caps the afternoon maximum. Current forecast feeds are mixed but not extreme, with Yandex showing a mild day with **about 20°C** in the afternoon and no precipitation, while other services lean warmer and drier, including AccuWeather’s 80°F high and a current reading around **90°F** in Munich on its live weather page.[3][12][13] For a market settling on the day’s *highest* observed temperature, the key trade is whether Munich Airport gets a clean warm-up window before any rain bands or cloud build later in the day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.