Highest temperature in Munich on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s **highest temperature** on 7 August is the deciding number here, and the market’s current **0% YES** implies the crowd sees no realistic path to the relevant range being hit. On the public forecasts, the baseline consensus is for a warm but not extreme day: AccuWeather shows a daily high around **81°F/27°C** for 7 August, while Yandex points to roughly **25°C** in the afternoon, with mostly benign winds and a long daylight window.[1][14] That leaves the market’s value question straightforward for a handicapper: the favourite is a mid‑20s Celsius outcome, and the underdog is a material overshoot into the upper 20s or low 30s, which would need a stronger-than-forecast warm-up than the current ensemble of consumer forecasts suggests.[1][4][8]

Historically, early August in Munich is usually comfortable rather than scorching. Long-run climate references put August daytime highs around the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, with a modest chance of wet days and only occasional excursions into the high 20s.[8][10] That historical frame makes the 0% price look more like an aggressive underdog call on a hot spike than a neutral weather line, so the main value debate is whether traders are underweighting late-day warming or overreacting to one forecast model’s rainier, cooler read.[2][10]

The main catalyst is the final local-day observation from Munich Airport, not the city centre, so traders should watch for any last-minute forecast revisions on temperature, cloud cover, and rainfall timing.[18] Current model output is split between a warmer, partly cloudy afternoon and some cooler or showery takes, with one forecast calling for around **25°C** and another showing **23°C** with rain; that gap matters because a few degrees can shift the winning range decisively.[2][14] The consensus sits in the mid‑20s, while the contrarian angle is that airport-specific heating and a dry afternoon could push the max higher than the crowd expects.[1][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.