Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns whether the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 10 August 2026 will exceed a specific threshold. The crowd currently assigns just 2% probability to the YES outcome, suggesting consensus expects a relatively moderate peak temperature for that date. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces different readings from headline high-low data.

New York City's August temperatures cluster tightly around historical norms. The median high for 10 August across the past three decades sits near 82°F, with extreme highs above 95°F occurring roughly once per decade at LaGuardia. The 2% implied probability indicates the market is pricing in an outcome at the far tail of the distribution—likely a threshold above 95°F or higher. This positioning reflects both the statistical rarity of such heat and the absence of any seasonal anomaly signal pointing toward an exceptional heatwave in early August 2026.

Traders should monitor long-range ensemble forecasts beginning in late July, though their skill at 30-day horizons remains modest. The Atlantic hurricane season and any tropical systems tracking toward the Northeast could inject moisture and cloud cover that suppresses afternoon peaks. Conversely, a high-pressure dome stalling over the Northeast in early August would be the primary catalyst for extreme heat. The National Weather Service's monthly outlooks, updated through June and July 2026, will offer the clearest signal of whether August conditions favour above-normal temperatures across the region.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.