Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The crowd is pricing a 0% probability that New York City's highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will fall within the market's specified range, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or minimal trading activity. LaGuardia Airport's temperature readings, drawn from the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures, will determine settlement. August in New York typically sees highs between 82–88°F, with extreme heat events pushing into the low 90s.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia show that readings above 95°F occur roughly once every five to seven years during the month, whilst temperatures below 80°F are uncommon but not unprecedented. The 2021 heat dome pushed New York to 99°F, and the summer of 2022 saw multiple days above 90°F. Current consensus appears to be anchored on a particular temperature band, leaving potential value in adjacent ranges if seasonal patterns or atmospheric conditions shift unexpectedly.

Traders should monitor late July and early August weather models, which typically gain reliability within two weeks of a target date. The Atlantic hurricane season's activity and positioning of high-pressure systems over the Northeast will be critical catalysts. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks, updated weekly through July 2026, will provide clearer signals on whether August 11 falls within a heat event, a typical summer pattern, or an unusually cool spell. Any significant atmospheric anomalies—such as tropical systems affecting the region—could materially alter temperature expectations.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.