Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing zero probability that the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 15 August 2026 will fall into whichever range this market specifies—a complete dismissal of any outcome. This reflects either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or a technical artefact of low trading volume. August in New York typically sees daily highs between 78–88°F, with the historical median around 82°F for mid-August. The 0% implied probability suggests the crowd has already settled on a single outcome with near-certainty, which is unusual for weather markets where uncertainty compounds as settlement approaches.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia show the range rarely exceeds 95°F or dips below 75°F in the daily high, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s and cool Atlantic systems occasionally suppress highs to the mid-70s. The 2023 summer saw multiple days above 90°F in mid-August, whilst cooler years have recorded highs in the upper 70s. The current 0% pricing suggests traders have anchored to a specific forecast or prior-year pattern, leaving potential value in contrarian positioning if atmospheric conditions diverge from consensus expectations.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast for late July and early August 2026, as jet-stream positioning and tropical activity patterns typically become clearer 10–14 days before mid-August. Any significant shift in Atlantic hurricane activity or anomalous high-pressure systems could alter temperature trajectories. The resolution will depend on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at LaGuardia, not the summary high-low figures, so traders should verify the exact measurement methodology before committing capital.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.