Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The crowd is pricing the highest temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 16 August 2026 at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Resolution will depend on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally matters when intraday peaks diverge from official highs.

August temperatures at LaGuardia typically range from 75°F to 88°F, with historical highs occasionally reaching the low 90s during heat waves. The 30-year average high for mid-August sits around 82°F. The flatline probability here likely reflects the market's nascent stage rather than genuine consensus; early-stage weather markets often show distorted odds until traders begin positioning. Comparable August markets from previous years have seen temperature ranges in the 85–92°F bracket command the most activity, with extreme heat (95°F+) and cool outcomes (sub-75°F) trading at longer odds.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from NOAA and track any developing Atlantic hurricane activity, which can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks, typically issued 8–10 days before the settlement date, will provide the first substantive signal of whether August 2026 tracks toward typical conditions or anomalous heat. Atmospheric patterns favouring high-pressure systems over the Northeast would support higher temperature ranges, whilst tropical systems or upper-level troughs could drive outcomes toward the lower end of the distribution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.