Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s highest temperature on 7 August 2026 settled into the **90–91°F** band as the market favourite, with the crowd-implied probability at **0% YES** on this specific contract format implying the market is effectively treating the listed outcomes as a binary misread rather than pricing a meaningful chance of an outlier. The key handicap is that this is a *LaGuardia* station close, not a citywide average, so the right comparison is between afternoon mixing, coastal influence and whether the airport briefly spikes above adjacent neighbourhoods. Recent market pricing elsewhere on NYC temperature events has clustered around the upper 80s to low 90s, with 90–91°F leading and 88–89°F next, which is consistent with traders expecting a warm but not extreme summer day.[3]

Historically, late-summer New York City highs often land in the 80s or low 90s, and recent 2026 reference points also show nearby daily highs in the mid-to-high 80s rather than record heat.[1][5] That makes the favourite’s edge straightforward: if the day runs a degree or two hotter than consensus, the 90–91°F bucket can clear easily; if sea-breeze influence arrives sooner or cloud cover holds, the underdog 88–89°F range becomes the value spot. The contrarian angle is that a station-specific reading at LaGuardia can overshoot broader city forecasts by a narrow margin, which gives the warmer bins more appeal than a casual “NYC weather” read might suggest.[4][7]

The main catalysts are the final short-range forecast updates, especially any change in high pressure, humidity, or coastal wind direction in the morning of 7 August, because those factors decide whether airport temperatures mix up enough for a 90°F-plus print.[7] Watch the National Weather Service climate products and the Weather Underground Daily Observations table on the day, since settlement uses the daily table rather than the summary high/low display, and that detail matters most if the market comes down to a one-degree boundary.[4][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.