Highest temperature in NYC on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The LaGuardia Airport reading for 8 August is already on the board, and the market is effectively treating a **90–91°F** outcome as the favourite, with the crowd pricing the top band at **100%** and the current consensus sitting there rather than in the sub-90s buckets.[3] That leaves the implied probability on the *0% YES* framing looking like an extreme underdog position, so the only real value case is contrarian: traders would need a materially cooler final station high, or a resolution quirk, to beat the consensus.[3][10]

For context, New York City’s early-August climatology usually supports warm afternoon highs around the upper 80s, so a low-90s print is not a stretch in summer pattern terms.[8] Recent comparable signals also leaned hot: AccuWeather’s monthly view showed 8 August at **89°F/75°F**, while WeatherSpark’s latest report for 8 August showed **89.1°F** at KLGA in the afternoon, already close to the likely resolution band.[1][2] That makes the favourite look firm, with any underdog case depending on a late downgrade rather than a broad pattern change.[1][2][8]

The main catalysts are procedural rather than dramatic: the market resolves from Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table for LaGuardia, not the summary high-low box, so traders should watch for late-updated observation entries and any revisions before the first datapoint for 9 August locks the record.[10][3] Weather Underground’s own history page for New York City is the key source, while Polymarket’s rule note says revisions inside the window count until the next day’s first datapoint appears.[10][3] For a trader, the consensus is already heavily anchored, so the only live value spot is whether the final station maximum lands in a different band from the market’s front-runner.[3][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 8? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.