Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market bets on whether LaGuardia Airport hits a specific high on 10 July 2026, yet the crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders expect a temperate day. This stance ignores the unprecedented heat wave that just scorched the East Coast, where LaGuardia smashed its all-time July record with 104°F on 3 July, breaking a 1966 benchmark by three degrees[1]. Historical data shows the station has only recorded highs above 101°F five times since 1948, with the most recent occurrence being that very 3 July event[3]. The consensus treats this date as a cooling break, but the lingering heat dome and record-breaking midnight temperatures of 94°F suggest the atmosphere remains primed for another extreme spike, creating a potential value spot for contrarians betting on higher ranges.

Traders must monitor the forecast for the next 24 hours, specifically watching for any shift in the high-pressure ridge that drove the recent 105°F readings in neighbouring New Jersey[6]. While AccuWeather projects daily highs between 81°F and 95°F for the month, the immediate dependency is the persistence of the heat wave that killed 29 people in New Jersey and set records across a 500-mile corridor[1]. If the ridge holds, the favourite (lower ranges) could be an underdog trap, as the current 0% probability fails to account for the volatility seen when LaGuardia hit 102°F just last Thursday[2]. The value lies in questioning whether the market has overcorrected for a cooling trend that may not materialise before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.