Highest temperature in NYC on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market bets on the peak Fahrenheit reading at LaGuardia Airport for 16 July 2026, with the crowd currently assigning a 0% probability to the YES outcome for any specific range. This near-zero stance on the favourite suggests traders are either pricing in a cool anomaly or misreading the seasonal baseline, as July in New York City historically favours heat.

Historical data frames July 2024 as one of the hottest on record for the region, with temperatures frequently breaching the 90°F threshold during mid-month heatwaves [3]. While Staten Island recently hit 86°F in a comparable July period, the consensus leans heavily toward the 90–91°F range, which commands a 31% implied probability, followed by 87°F or below at 24% [1]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for the current favourite appears to be a significant value spot, contradicting the typical thermal behaviour of NYC summers where 90°F is a common ceiling rather than an outlier.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service heat wave advisories and local AccuWeather forecasts for the coming week, as these dictate the immediate thermal trajectory [2]. A contrarian angle exists here: if the market ignores the precedent of July 2024’s record heat, the 90–91°F range offers the most logical entry point before the settlement window closes in 2026. The dependency on Wunderground’s LaGuardia station data means any localised cloud cover or wind shift could invalidate the 90°F expectation, yet the historical weight of recent summers supports a contrarian bet against the current 0% pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.