Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record a daily high temperature on 19 July 2026, with the market asking which range that reading will fall into. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to the YES outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full distribution.

New York City's July weather is remarkably consistent year-on-year, with historical records showing the median high at LaGuardia hovers around 84–86°F during mid-July. The National Weather Service's 30-year climate normals place the average July maximum at 84°F, whilst extreme heat days pushing above 95°F occur roughly once per decade in this period. The 0% probability on the YES outcome likely reflects the market's consensus settling on a narrow band—probably the 80–89°F range—rather than genuine certainty about the precise temperature. This leaves value potential if traders believe the distribution should be flatter or if they anticipate an unusual heat event.

The Atlantic hurricane season and upper-level atmospheric patterns will shape conditions heading into mid-July 2026. Tropical moisture and heat dome positioning, typically forecast with reasonable confidence 7–10 days ahead, will be the key catalysts traders should monitor. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal outlook and any issued heat advisories in early July will provide concrete signals about whether the consensus band remains defensible or whether outlier ranges warrant reassessment.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.