Highest temperature in NYC on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s maximum for 22 July is shaping up as a **modest-temperature** call rather than a heat-event, with the market’s current **0% YES** implying the crowd sees virtually no chance of landing in the target band. The best public guidance points to NYC highs around **83–87°F**, which puts the consensus in the mid-80s and leaves the market looking more like a favourite that has already been priced in than an obvious underdog. That leaves the value question focused on whether the actual airport reading prints one or two degrees hotter or cooler than the centre of the range, rather than on any dramatic swing. [1]

Historically, July in New York is warm and humid, with typical highs around **30°C/86°F** and plenty of day-to-day variation, so this kind of market often hinges on small boundary-layer changes rather than broad seasonal expectations. The useful handicapper’s read is that consensus sits in the **low-to-mid 80s**, while the main contrarian angle is a cooler outcome if cloud cover or showers cap daytime warming; a hotter surprise would need the warm end of the guidance to verify and would be harder to sustain if late-day convection develops. [2][1]

For traders, the main catalysts are the final daily forecast updates, any change in humidity or cloud cover, and whether scattered showers arrive late enough to trim the airport high. NBC New York’s morning forecast on 22 July put the day near **84°F** and described only a slight shower chance, which reinforces the mid-80s consensus and leaves most of the market’s uncertainty in the adjacent bins rather than in extremes. In practice, the favourite is the middle range, while the value sits either in a small upside surprise towards the upper 80s or in a cooler miss if cloudier conditions linger. [3][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 22? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.