Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's peak temperature on 27 July 2026 will be recorded and resolved against predetermined Fahrenheit bands. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to the highest range, suggesting either extreme confidence in cooler conditions or minimal trading activity in this particular market. Settlement depends on historical data from Wunderground's LaGuardia station, the primary weather observation point for New York City's aviation sector.

New York's late-July climate typically produces highs between 82–88°F, with occasional peaks above 90°F during heat waves. The 30-year normal for 27 July sits near 84°F. Extreme readings—above 95°F—occur roughly once per decade in midsummer, whilst temperatures below 75°F are rare but possible if a frontal system moves through. The 0% crowd probability on the highest band suggests traders expect either typical summer conditions or deliberate avoidance of tail-risk pricing in a market with limited liquidity.

Catalysts shaping late-July 2026 conditions remain dependent on Atlantic hurricane activity, upper-level ridge positioning, and moisture transport patterns—factors that won't crystallise until weeks before the settlement date. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, typically reliable only 10–14 days out, will become actionable mid-July. Any tropical system tracking toward the Northeast could suppress temperatures significantly, whilst a dominant Bermuda high would favour above-normal heat. Current zero pricing on extreme heat may reflect either genuine confidence in seasonal norms or simply sparse market participation awaiting clearer atmospheric signals.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.