Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on whether LaGuardia Airport in Queens will record a temperature in the 70–71°F range on 6 July 2026, a market currently assigning a 75% probability to that outcome while the crowd-implied probability for any higher range sits at 0%. Historical precedents from the early July 2026 heatwave show LaGuardia hitting 104°F on 2 July, with midnight temperatures reaching a record 94°F, suggesting that while extreme peaks occurred, the recent frontal passage has cooled readings to mid-70s, making the 70–71°F band the consensus favourite and the underdog ranges of 74°F+ appear statistically valueless at present[1][5].

Traders should monitor the timing of the next frontal boundary and any official National Weather Service updates for LaGuardia, as the settlement depends on the single highest temperature recorded at any time on that day[8]. With dews returning to the 70s and heat indexes climbing despite cooler highs, the contrarian angle lies in whether a late-evening spike could breach the 72°F threshold, though current forecasts project daily highs between 81°F and 99°F with overnight lows of 68°F–83°F, reinforcing the 70–71°F range as the most probable outcome[9]. The value spot remains firmly in the consensus, as the 0% probability for higher ranges reflects the market’s confidence that the cooling trend will persist through the settlement window[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.