Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026, the LaGuardia Airport station will record its peak temperature for the day, a real-world event that determines whether the market settles as a favourite or underdog. The crowd-implied probability of 4% YES suggests the consensus expects the temperature to stay well below the highest range, likely in the 80s or low 90s Fahrenheit. Historical data frames this expectation: July 2026 forecasts for LaGuardia show daily highs between 81° and 99°, with overnight lows from 68° to 83°[2]. Yet, recent extremes challenge the underdog narrative; LaGuardia hit 102°F on a Thursday in July, breaking a daily high record, and reached 94°F at midnight, surpassing the 2013 record of 93°F[1][3]. The all-time peak remains 107°F from July 3, 1966[8], indicating that while 4% is a contrarian spot, value could sit if a heatwave intensifies.

Traders must watch for catalysts that could push temperatures toward the upper range, particularly the East Coast heatwave currently affecting holiday travel and the AAA forecast of 71 million travellers impacted[6]. The National Weather Service confirms sunrise at 5:31 AM and sunset at 8:29 PM on 7 July, maximising solar exposure[4]. A key dependency is the continuation of the record-setting heat that lingered into the night, as seen when the airport reached 102°F and 94°F at midnight[1]. Recent news from FOX Weather highlights this as the hottest midnight temperature ever recorded at LaGuardia, suggesting the heatwave’s momentum may persist[1]. If the heatwave strengthens, the 4% probability could represent significant value, as the consensus may underestimate the risk of a 100°F+ day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.