Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

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Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record a peak temperature on 11 June 2026, with the highest reading across all daylight and evening hours forming the settlement value. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any specific outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve or insufficient liquidity to establish consensus pricing.

New York's June temperatures typically range between 75–85°F at LaGuardia, with occasional spikes into the low 90s during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that mid-June highs exceed 85°F roughly 40% of the time, whilst readings above 90°F occur in fewer than 15% of June cases. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's nascent state rather than genuine conviction that no temperature will occur; traders should examine which ranges carry the most defensible historical precedent before committing capital.

The National Weather Service Northeast Region issues extended forecasts roughly ten days before settlement, with refinements arriving through the first week of June. Atmospheric patterns favouring heat domes or cool Canadian air masses typically become apparent by early June, allowing traders to adjust positions based on seasonal teleconnections and upper-level ridge positioning. Monitoring the GFS and NAM model consensus from late May onwards will prove essential, as a late-spring heat event or persistent cool pattern could dramatically shift the distribution of likely outcomes away from the historical median.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.