Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

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Market context

The relevant event is the highest temperature reached at LaGuardia Airport on 21 June 2026, and the market’s **0% YES** price makes the field a clear **underdog** at present. For context, New York City’s June 21 record high is **97°F**, set twice, most recently in 1988, while the long-run average high for the date is only **81.5°F**[1]. That is a wide gap between normal early-summer conditions and the sort of extreme heat needed to land the upper end of the resolution band.

From a handicapper’s view, the consensus is effectively priced for a routine summer day rather than a heat event. The value question is whether a late-June warm spell can push LaGuardia into the low 90s or beyond, which is the sort of outcome that would matter for this market. Recent history shows New York can briefly surge into the upper 90s in late June, including **99°F** at Central Park on 24 June 2025 and **96°F** at LaGuardia on 21 June 2024, so the tail is not dead even if it is clearly against the favourite[3][4].

The main catalysts are synoptic heat set-ups, humidity, and cloud cover rather than any market-specific event, so traders should watch the official forecast trend for the New York metro area in the days before settlement, especially whether a ridge builds over the Northeast or a frontal passage limits the afternoon maximum. Because the contract resolves off Weather Underground’s LaGuardia history page, the key dependency is the station’s final daily high rather than a citywide average, and coastal influences can leave LaGuardia a degree or two different from Manhattan. In that setting, the contrarian angle is not a huge heatwave call; it is the chance that the station prints a noticeably warmer peak than the consensus expects.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.