Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

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Market context

On 24 June 2026, the LaGuardia Airport Station will record its peak daily temperature, a metric that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the "YES" outcome, suggesting near-universal consensus that the temperature will not breach the specified threshold. This aligns with historical patterns where late-June highs in New York typically hover between 77°F and 92°F, with the average high for the month around 83°F[5][9]. Recent data from 21 June shows a high of 79°F, slightly below the historic average of 82.9°F, indicating a potential cooling trend that may persist[6].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service climatological reports for LaGuardia, which note a record maximum of 101°F in 2025, though such extremes are rare[4]. The primary catalyst is the incoming weather forecast for the week of 24 June, which AccuWeather predicts will see daily highs ranging from 72°F to 89°F[9]. Contrarian value might exist if a sudden heatwave develops, pushing temperatures toward the 90°F mark, a scenario currently dismissed by the market. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 24 June, any deviation from the forecasted 72–89°F range would represent a significant market mispricing[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.