Highest temperature in NYC on May 24?

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Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record its highest temperature on 24 May 2026, with the market currently pricing all outcome ranges at zero probability—a technical artifact suggesting insufficient liquidity or early-stage pricing rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded. The settlement mechanism uses Weather Underground's historical data archive for the station, which captures daily highs with standard meteorological precision.

May temperatures at LaGuardia typically range between 65°F and 80°F, with historical highs occasionally reaching the mid-80s during warm spells. The 30-year average high for late May sits around 75°F. Comparable years show variability: May 2023 saw highs in the low 80s across multiple days, whilst cooler Mays have peaked in the upper 60s. The zero-probability reading across all brackets reflects market immaturity rather than any meteorological expectation of failure to record data.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from the National Weather Service as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals regarding Atlantic ridge positioning or early summer heat patterns. The North Atlantic Oscillation and sea surface temperatures in late April will influence whether high-pressure systems dominate the Northeast. Historical precedent suggests the most likely outcomes cluster around 72–82°F, with May heat waves occasionally pushing toward 85°F. Current pricing offers no differentiation between plausible ranges, creating potential value once forecasts narrow the distribution and liquidity improves.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.