Highest temperature in Paris on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris’s daytime peak on 11 August is a straightforward weather outcome, but the market is pricing in a fairly warm August pattern rather than an extreme outlier. The current crowd-implied probability is **0% YES**, which is effectively a long-shot reading against a hot-but-not-catastrophic forecast; recent market pricing elsewhere has centred on the low-30s Celsius, with 32°C the leading outcome and 33°C and 31°C close behind.[1] Long-run August climatology for Paris sits much lower than that heatwave setup, with typical highs around the mid-to-high 20s Celsius and a recorded 11 August average high of about 25.5°C in one Paris record set.[2][4]

On comparable hot August days, the favourite has usually been a temperature band clustered around the low 30s rather than the upper 30s, which leaves value concentrated in the middle outcomes if the heat builds as forecast but does not break records.[1][8][13] The contrarian angle is that Paris can still undershoot the headline forecast if cloud, wind shifts or a weak afternoon peak cap the max; that matters here because the market resolves off the **highest temperature recorded in the Daily Observations table** at Paris-Le Bourget Airport, not the simpler summary high, so the exact hourly trace is decisive.[1]

The main catalysts to watch are the local forecast updates, any heat alerts, and whether the warm spell intensifies or eases during the day. Recent reporting from *Le Monde* says France’s heatwave was expected to intensify in the days running into this period, while AccuWeather had Paris under an extreme-high-temperature warning with a 91°F/64°F forecast, implying a high around 33°C, which supports the favourite but still leaves room for outcomes one notch lower or higher.[18][13] Traders should also watch the timing of the day’s peak relative to the observation window and any late revisions before the first datapoint for the following date is published, because that is what fixes settlement.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.