Highest temperature in Paris on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing zero probability that the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 14 August 2026 will fall into whichever range this contract represents. This implies either extreme confidence in a cooler outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across all temperature bands in this market cluster.

August temperatures at Le Bourget historically cluster in the 25–28°C range, with extremes rarely exceeding 32°C even during European heat waves. The station's 30-year average high for mid-August sits around 26°C. The 0% probability suggests traders are anchoring to cooler-than-normal scenarios or have simply not engaged with this particular temperature band. Historical precedent from August 2003's exceptional heat wave—when Paris recorded 39°C—demonstrates that extreme outcomes do occur, albeit infrequently. The absence of any non-zero probability here appears disconnected from the genuine tail-risk distribution of August weather at this location.

Traders should monitor European seasonal forecasting updates from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as summer 2026 approaches. Broader climate patterns, including Atlantic oscillation indices and Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures, will shape whether August 2026 tracks toward typical conditions or anomalous heat. The settlement window closes at midday on the event date, meaning real-time weather tracking becomes critical in the final hours. Any significant repricing of this market would likely occur in late July or early August when medium-range forecasts sharpen.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.