Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market prices a 1% chance that Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record a temperature of 40°C or higher on 15 August 2026. This represents an extreme heat event by Parisian standards, though not unprecedented in the modern era. The crowd has positioned this as a heavy underdog outcome, implying high confidence in a cooler result.

Historical data shows Paris rarely breaches 40°C in August. The city's all-time August maximum stands at 40.3°C, recorded in 2003 during Europe's catastrophic heatwave. More typical August highs cluster between 24–28°C, with readings above 35°C occurring perhaps once every five to ten years. The 1% probability reflects the genuine rarity of such extreme heat, though climate patterns have shifted measurably since the 1980s baseline. Recent Augusts have seen occasional spikes above 35°C, suggesting the tail risk isn't negligible even if unlikely.

The resolution hinges on real-time meteorological conditions in mid-August 2026, which remain impossible to forecast with precision two years ahead. Traders should monitor seasonal climate outlooks released by Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as summer 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of persistent high-pressure systems or Atlantic blocking patterns that could drive continental heat northward. The specific reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than summary figures—means the exact station recording methodology matters; Le Bourget's elevation and urban heat island effects will influence final readings. Current pricing may undervalue the tail risk given accelerating temperature trends across Western Europe, though the 1% floor reflects genuine climatological constraints.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.