Highest temperature in Paris on July 5?

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Market context

The real-world event at hand is the peak temperature expected at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 5 July 2026, a date historically prone to summer heat spikes. Current crowd-implied probability for the highest temperature falling below 29°C sits at 0% YES, reflecting a market consensus that cooler outcomes are virtually impossible. Historical data frames this firmly: July in Paris typically sees average highs of 26°C, yet extremes have soared to 43°C in 2019, with recent national records hitting 44.3°C in Landes during a brutal European heatwave [3][5]. The median guidance from traders now points to 29°C as the frontrunner at 84%, while 30°C holds 17%, suggesting the market views 29–30°C as the value spot rather than the contrarian 31°C or higher [1].

Traders should monitor the strength of subsidence patterns and the timing of maritime advection, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature deviation. A strengthening subsidence layer could trap residual warmth, pushing temperatures toward 31°C or above, whereas faster advection of cooler maritime air might cap the day near 29°C [1]. Recent heatwave alerts in France during June 2026 underscore the volatility of summer temperatures, with the Met Office noting conditions expected to improve by Friday, hinting at potential shifts in atmospheric pressure that could influence the 5 July outcome [4][7]. The key dependency is whether the heat dome persists or breaks, making the 29°C range the favourite and any spike above 31°C the underdog with slim odds but tangible value if subsidence strengthens.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.