Highest temperature in Paris on May 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market seeks the single highest temperature reading at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 23 May 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that station. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which temperature band will occur or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

May temperatures at Le Bourget typically range between 12°C and 22°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 28–30°C during early heat waves. Historical records show that late May in the Paris region experiences high variability; the station recorded 29.4°C on 23 May 2015 and 18.1°C on the same date in 2019. This 11-degree spread across just four years illustrates why consensus forecasting becomes unreliable beyond two weeks. The 0% probability reading likely reflects the market's current distance from May 2026 rather than any genuine belief that temperatures will fall outside measurable ranges.

Traders should monitor European weather pattern forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly the North Atlantic Oscillation phase and any developing high-pressure systems over continental Europe. The Copernicus Climate Change Service and Météo-France typically release extended-range outlooks 3–4 weeks ahead that could shift market expectations. Spring 2026 temperature anomalies across Europe will provide context; if winter-to-spring trends show persistent warmth, higher temperature bands gain credibility. Settlement hinges entirely on Wunderground's archival data, making the station's operational status and data quality the sole technical dependency.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on May 23? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.