Highest temperature in Paris on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either incomplete market formation or genuine uncertainty about which temperature bracket will materialise. Settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date, with the measurement taken across all daylight and evening hours.

May temperatures in the Paris region typically range between 15–22°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching 25–28°C during warm spells. The 0% implied probability across all outcomes reflects the market's nascent state rather than a genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded. Comparable May days at Le Bourget show considerable variance: the station has recorded May highs as low as 13°C and as high as 29°C depending on synoptic patterns. Early-season European heat waves do occur—May 2022 saw several French stations exceed 30°C—but they remain outliers. The absence of trading activity means no handicapper has yet staked a position, leaving all temperature brackets potentially undervalued relative to their historical frequency.

Seasonal forecasting models become more reliable 10–14 days before late May, so traders should monitor European weather outlooks from mid-May onwards. The North Atlantic Oscillation and high-pressure systems over continental Europe will determine whether anticyclonic conditions drive temperatures into the upper ranges or whether Atlantic low-pressure systems keep conditions cooler. Current spring patterns suggest neither extreme heat nor unusual cold is locked in, making mid-range outcomes (18–24°C) statistically more probable than the extremes.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.