Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 22 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all outcomes, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or insufficient trader participation to establish consensus pricing. São Paulo's climate during late autumn (Southern Hemisphere) typically sees highs between 24–28°C, though variation depends heavily on synoptic patterns and cold fronts moving northward from the south.

Historical May temperatures at Guarulhos reveal a median high around 26–27°C, with extremes ranging from 20°C during cooler years to 31°C during warmer episodes. The airport station's readings tend to track slightly cooler than central São Paulo due to its location and elevation, making it a reliable reference point. Traders should note that May sits at the transition between autumn and winter, when cold frontal systems occasionally push through the region, depressing temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems can drive readings toward the upper 20s or low 30s.

The Southern Hemisphere's austral winter approaches in late May, introducing greater day-to-day volatility than summer months. Traders should monitor medium-range weather models (10–14 days prior to settlement) for signals of cold air advection or persistent high pressure. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 22 May, giving traders access to morning observations but requiring early positioning based on forecast confidence. Current zero pricing suggests the market lacks sufficient liquidity or trader conviction to establish meaningful odds across temperature bands.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.