Highest temperature in Seattle on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the likelihood that Seattle-Tacoma International Airport will record a specific high temperature on 10 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are not backing any particular temperature band, leaving the entire outcome space open to assessment.

Seattle's August climate shows consistent patterns across decades. Historical data from the National Weather Service indicates that daily highs in early August typically range between 75–82°F, with extremes rarely exceeding 90°F at Sea-Tac. The airport's location near Puget Sound moderates temperature swings compared to inland regions. August 2023 saw a high of 79°F on the 10th; August 2022 reached 82°F on that date. Anomalously hot Augusts—such as 2021, when the Pacific Northwest experienced record heat—remain statistical outliers rather than the norm. The current zero probability reflects either minimal trading activity or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve.

Traders should monitor late-July and early-August weather patterns in 2026, particularly whether high-pressure systems establish over the Pacific Northwest. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, typically issued 10–14 days ahead, will provide the first substantive signal. Sea surface temperatures in the Northeast Pacific influence coastal Washington's summer weather; anomalously warm ocean conditions could push temperatures toward the 85–90°F range, whilst cooler patterns would reinforce the historical 75–82°F baseline. The resolution source's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than summary highs—requires attention to how that platform records intra-day temperature peaks.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.