Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport station will record its highest temperature on 24 May 2026, with the market settlement depending on which range that reading falls into. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either incomplete market formation or an expectation that the event is too distant for meaningful pricing.

Seattle's May climate sits at a seasonal inflection point. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that late May highs in the Puget Sound region typically range between 65–75°F, with occasional warm spells pushing toward 80°F. The airport's official station, which measures at a consistent elevation and exposure, has recorded May 24th highs of 73°F (2019), 68°F (2018), and 76°F (2017) across recent years. These readings establish a baseline against which any 2026 outcome should be evaluated. The absence of trading activity may reflect the market's distance from settlement—traders often wait until seasonal patterns become clearer in late April or early May before committing capital to weather outcomes.

Catalysts for this market will emerge as spring 2026 approaches. Pacific Northwest weather patterns depend heavily on ridge positioning and moisture transport from the Pacific, factors that become predictable only 10–14 days in advance. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks, typically issued in mid-May, will provide the first actionable signal. Any unusual atmospheric setup—such as an early heat dome or persistent marine layer—could shift expectations substantially. Until then, the zero-probability reading reflects rational disengagement rather than genuine market conviction about the outcome range.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.