Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the peak temperature at Incheon International Airport on 14 August 2026 at zero probability across all ranges, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity. Seoul's August climate is characterised by intense summer heat and high humidity; historical data shows daily highs typically range between 28–32°C during mid-August, with occasional peaks exceeding 33°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability indicates traders are either heavily concentrated in a single temperature band or the market has attracted minimal participation thus far.

Seoul experiences its hottest conditions during August, when the North Pacific high-pressure system dominates East Asian weather patterns. The 2023 summer saw Seoul record 33.1°C on 14 August, whilst 2022 peaked at 31.8°C on the same date. Incheon Airport, located on the coast, typically records temperatures 1–2°C cooler than central Seoul due to maritime influence, though this moderating effect diminishes during intense heat events. These historical ranges suggest mid-to-high 20s and low-to-mid 30s Celsius are the realistic outcome space.

Traders should monitor the Korean Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any El Niño or La Niña patterns developing through 2026, as these influence summer heat intensity across the Korean peninsula. Real-time weather models become reliable only 10–14 days before the settlement date. The current zero probability across all ranges presents a contrarian opportunity if the market eventually attracts broader participation; consensus clustering around 30–32°C would represent fair value given historical August patterns at Incheon.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.