Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature at Incheon International Airport on 19 August 2026 at 0% probability across all ranges, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces discrepancies when stations record spikes during specific hours that don't register in headline highs.

Seoul's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from Incheon shows August highs cluster between 28–32°C, with extreme readings above 35°C occurring in roughly one year per decade during heat domes. The 2018 heat wave pushed temperatures to 39.6°C in Seoul proper, though Incheon's coastal location typically moderates readings by 1–2°C compared to the city centre. August 19 falls mid-month, when seasonal heating peaks but before the late-summer transition that occasionally brings tropical systems.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Korea Meteorological Administration in early August, as typhoon proximity can suppress temperatures dramatically. El Niño or La Niña conditions in summer 2026 will shape regional pressure patterns; the current neutral phase offers no directional signal. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects either a consensus range that excludes the extremes, or genuine uncertainty about which bracket the market intends to test. Historical volatility suggests value exists at both tails—extreme heat above 35°C and cooler outcomes below 28°C—rather than the consensus mid-range.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.