Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the Incheon International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a single data point that determines whether the prediction market resolves to a specific Celsius range. The crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the “YES” outcome, reflecting a consensus that the temperature will fall outside the favoured range. This stance aligns with historical patterns where early July in Seoul typically averages a high of 27°C, though humidity often pushes afternoon readings higher, rarely dipping below 21°C or exceeding 33°C under normal conditions[1][3].

Historical precedents frame this probability with caution: Seoul’s all-time heat record of 39.6°C was set on 1 August, not in early July, while the highest early-July temperature ever recorded was 37.8°C on 8 July 2023, a rare outlier that beat a 117-year record[2][4][8]. Traders should watch for sudden shifts in monsoon activity or unseasonal heatwaves, as these catalysts could push temperatures beyond the 33°C threshold. Recent forecasts for July 2026 suggest daily highs between 27°C and 32°C, with overnight lows between 21°C and 25°C, indicating limited value in betting on extreme heat unless a contrarian angle on monsoon disruption emerges[5]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the dependency on Wunderground’s final daily reading means traders must monitor real-time updates closely as the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.