Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

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Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing a severe heatwave, with temperatures on 11 July 2026 already reaching 86°F (30°C) by 9:00 am, setting the stage for a potential record-breaking high before the settlement window closes at noon UTC[7]. The market currently assigns a 0% implied probability to the "YES" outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will not hit the specific threshold in question, yet historical data shows Seoul has recorded 37.8°C in early July just days prior, marking the hottest start to the month in 117 years[1][2].

Historical precedents frame this as a clear underdog scenario where the consensus is likely mispricing the risk of extreme heat. While average July highs in Seoul typically hover around 29°C (85°F), rarely exceeding 33°C (91°F), the recent anomaly of 37.8°C on 8 July demonstrates that the city is capable of far higher readings than the statistical mean[2][4]. This recent record-breaking event, which beat the previous 1908 benchmark, suggests the current 0% probability may be a value spot for contrarian traders betting on the upper end of the temperature range, as the climate trend in South Korea is showing increasingly volatile and intense summer peaks[5][6].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Incheon International Airport Station, the designated resolution source, as the heatwave is expected to persist through the settlement deadline[3]. The primary catalyst is the continuation of the current atmospheric pressure system driving the record heat, with no immediate cooling announcements scheduled for the region[2]. Given that South Korea recorded its second-hottest July since 1973 overall, the dependency on sustained high-pressure ridges means the temperature could easily surpass typical expectations if the system remains stable through midday[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

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How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.