Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s peak heat on 15 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, with the market currently pricing any outcome above the implied threshold at zero probability. The crowd assigns a 33% chance to 27°C and 32% to 26°C, making these the clear favourites, while the 0% YES probability suggests traders view a higher-temperature scenario as virtually impossible [1].

Historically, mid-July highs in Seoul typically cluster between 25°C and 29°C, with 27°C appearing frequently in recent decades; this pattern aligns with the market’s concentration on 26–27°C as the value spots. Contrarian angles would require evidence of an unusually intense heatwave, but current consensus treats such an event as a long underdog, consistent with the 0% implied probability for the YES outcome [1].

Traders should monitor daily forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and real-time updates on Wunderground, the designated resolution source, for any sudden shifts in temperature projections. A recent heat advisory issued for the Seoul region could act as a catalyst, though no official announcement has yet pushed expectations beyond the 27°C ceiling [1]. Dependencies include cloud cover, wind patterns from the Pacific, and the timing of the afternoon peak, all of which will determine whether the day breaks the current market favourite.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.