Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces its mid-July heat peak on 16 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station set to record the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently assigns a 0% implied probability to the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the defined range, while the frontrunner outcome is 29°C at 39% probability, followed closely by 30°C at 35% [2].

Historically, Seoul’s mid-July highs at Incheon typically cluster between 28°C and 32°C, with 29°C and 30°C being the most frequent peaks in comparable years. The Weather Network’s monthly report for Seoul indicates a 57% likelihood of temperatures reaching or exceeding 29°C in July, framing the 29°C and 30°C outcomes as the statistical favourites rather than outliers [1]. The 0% crowd-implied probability on the YES side appears contrarian, potentially mispricing the high baseline heat expected in this period.

Traders should monitor real-time forecasts from Wunderground and local meteorological updates as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 July. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns from the Yellow Sea could push temperatures below 29°C, creating value for contrarian positions against the 29°C and 30°C consensus [2]. The key dependency remains the absence of significant precipitation or marine fog, which historically suppresses peak temperatures in Incheon during mid-July.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.