Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is entering its peak summer heatwave window on 21 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station serving as the official benchmark for the day’s highest temperature. The crowd currently assigns a 0% implied probability to the YES outcome, suggesting near-universal consensus that the temperature will fall outside the market’s defined range. This extreme pricing implies traders expect either a significantly cooler day or one that breaches the upper threshold, leaving little room for the middle ground.

Historically, late July in Seoul sees average highs around 26–28°C, with a 43% daily chance of rain and frequent precipitation events that can suppress peak temperatures [1]. Comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 show that when rain coincides with the monsoon season, temperatures often dip below 25°C, whereas clear, humid days push readings toward 32–34°C. The current 0% pricing appears to ignore this volatility, creating a potential value spot for contrarian traders betting on a moderate high within the range, especially if cloud cover or rain develops overnight.

Key catalysts include the Korea Meteorological Administration’s 24-hour forecast release at 09:00 KST and any sudden shifts in the East Asian monsoon front. Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time hourly data for RKSI, as a rapid rise in humidity or a break in cloud cover could trigger a sharp temperature spike. A recent forecast from the Korean Weather Service notes increasing instability in the region, which could disrupt the consensus view and open contrarian angles before settlement closes at 12:00 UTC on 21 July.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.