Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 25 July 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market. Seoul's summer climate is characterised by hot, humid conditions driven by the East Asian monsoon system, with late July typically among the warmest months of the year. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact temperature range or awaiting clarity on how the resolution brackets are structured.

Historical data from Incheon Airport shows July temperatures regularly exceed 30°C, with daily highs frequently reaching 32–35°C during peak summer. The 30-year average high for late July sits around 29–30°C, though extreme heat events pushing above 37°C have occurred in recent decades—notably during the 2018 and 2022 heat waves across East Asia. This historical spread indicates substantial variance in potential outcomes, making a flat 0% assessment unusual unless the market's temperature bands are narrowly defined or positioned at statistical extremes.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns as the date approaches, particularly any forecasts for heat domes or tropical systems that might influence regional temperatures in mid-to-late July 2026. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues extended outlooks by early July, which could shift market expectations. Additionally, the specific resolution methodology—whether Wunderground's data captures all recording times accurately and how temperature bands are calibrated—will matter significantly for settlement clarity. Current consensus appears to reflect either low confidence in the available information or a mismatch between the probability display and actual trading activity.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.