Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 28 July 2026 will determine which range this market settles into. Seoul's summer climate is characterised by intense heat and humidity during late July, with the city regularly experiencing temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius. The 0% implied probability suggests the crowd expects no meaningful chance of an extreme outcome, though the settlement mechanism—using Wunderground's historical data from a specific airport station—creates a narrow, measurable target rather than a broader city-wide average.

Historical July records at Incheon show the airport station typically records highs between 28–34°C during the final week of the month, with occasional spikes above 35°C during heat waves. South Korea's meteorological agency has documented several instances of temperatures exceeding 36°C in the Seoul metropolitan area during late July, though airport stations often register slightly cooler readings than urban centres due to proximity to coastal influences. The current 0% probability likely reflects consensus clustering around the most common range rather than genuine uncertainty about whether heat will occur.

The key variable for late July 2026 is whether an upper-atmosphere high-pressure system will dominate the Korean peninsula during that specific week. Seasonal forecasts and monsoon patterns become more reliable 10–14 days ahead of the settlement date. Traders should monitor the Korean Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts from mid-July, which will clarify whether atmospheric conditions favour typical summer heat or an anomalous cool spell. Any significant deviation from Seoul's historical July baseline would represent genuine value against the current consensus.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.