Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, Seoul will face its peak daytime heat, with the Incheon International Airport station serving as the official resolution point for the highest temperature recorded. Early July climatology in the region typically places the mean daily high between 28°C and 30°C, though significant variance is tied to the East Asian monsoon’s progression [1]. Historical data shows July highs rarely dip below 74°F (23.3°C) or exceed 91°F (32.8°C), with recent years witnessing record-breaking warmth, including a 37.7°C spike in Seoul during early July 2025—the highest in 117 years of records [3][5]. The market currently implies a 0% probability for the 28°C outcome, yet consensus leans heavily toward adjacent bands, leaving value spots for contrarian traders who recognise that 28°C remains the modal outcome despite fragmented odds across ten competing temperature bands [1].

Traders must monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts, which are highly sensitive to monsoon shifts and could alter the probability landscape before noon Seoul time on resolution day [1]. Recent news highlights that South Korea endured its second-hottest July since 1973, with average temperatures reaching 27.1°C, and a century-old record for tropical nights where temperatures stayed above 25°C for 22 consecutive days [6][7]. These dependencies suggest that while 28°C is statistically probable, the market’s 0% implied probability may be an overreaction to recent volatility, creating a potential value spot for those betting on the modal outcome rather than the extremes [1]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 6 July, meaning any updated forecast data released before then will be critical for price discovery.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.