Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 10 June 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome—a technical artefact reflecting the market's early stage rather than genuine certainty about weather conditions. Seoul's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with daily highs typically ranging from 24°C to 28°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that extreme temperatures above 32°C occur in Seoul during June roughly once every five to seven years, whilst readings below 20°C are rare but not unprecedented during unsettled weather patterns.

The relevant catalyst is the East Asian monsoon system's positioning in early June, which determines whether warm continental air masses dominate or whether cooler maritime influences prevail. Current seasonal forecasting models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and China's CMA typically become reliable for regional temperature patterns only two to three weeks before the settlement date. Traders should monitor late May atmospheric pressure patterns over the North Pacific and the strength of the Tibetan high-pressure system, both of which drive June temperature extremes across the Korean peninsula. The 0% crowd probability reflects insufficient liquidity rather than informed consensus; once trading volume increases closer to June 2026, the market will calibrate toward the seasonal baseline of 26–28°C as the most probable range.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.