Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

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Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 11 June 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, the official weather observation point for the metropolitan region. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the final reading must occur before that timestamp to count toward resolution. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating the outcome as predetermined, though early June temperatures in Seoul are neither extreme nor trivial to forecast.

Historical data from Incheon shows early June typically sits between 20–28°C, with occasional peaks near 30°C during warmer years. The 2023 and 2024 records for this period reveal considerable year-to-year variance depending on whether subtropical air masses push northward or cooler maritime influences dominate. A trader examining comparable June 11th observations across the past decade would find the distribution spreads across multiple temperature bands rather than clustering tightly, suggesting the current zero probability reflects market thinness rather than genuine certainty about the outcome.

The key variable for June 2026 will be the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any early-season tropical moisture advection from the south. South Korean meteorological forecasts typically become reliable 7–10 days before the date in question, meaning traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended outlook as mid-May approaches. Any significant heat wave warnings or unusual upper-air patterns flagged in late May could shift expectations materially, though at present the market shows no pricing activity to suggest traders are actively positioning ahead of that information window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.