Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature at Incheon International Airport on 12 June 2026 at zero probability across all ranges, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Seoul's early summer climate typically produces daily highs between 24–28°C in mid-June, with occasional spikes above 30°C during heat waves. The settlement source—Wunderground's historical data for Incheon station—is the standard reference for South Korean airport weather, though traders should verify the specific station designation (RKSI) matches the intended location, as data gaps or station changes have occasionally affected resolution clarity on weather markets.

June sits at the tail end of Seoul's late spring pattern before the full monsoon season arrives, making temperature variance meaningful. Historical records show that whilst sustained heat waves are uncommon in early June, anomalous warm systems can push readings into the low 30s. The zero-probability pricing likely reflects either a technical issue with market initialisation or traders awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasts closer to the settlement date. The current crowd position offers no obvious contrarian angle until seasonal forecasts and actual June weather patterns emerge in the months ahead.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.