Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the maximum temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 17 June 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome. Seoul's early-to-mid June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical daily highs typically ranging from 24°C to 28°C during this period. The 0% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus dismissal—without a specific temperature range specified in the market structure, traders lack a clear focal point for positioning.

Historical June weather at Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation. The airport station has recorded June highs spanning from below 20°C during cooler years to exceeding 32°C during heat waves, though readings in the 26–29°C band represent the modal outcome. The absence of early-season heat waves in most years anchors baseline expectations toward moderate temperatures, yet the tail risk of an unseasonable warm spell remains material. Comparable markets on Korean summer temperatures have typically seen late-spring days cluster around consensus ranges once specific thresholds are introduced.

Traders should monitor the East Asian weather pattern development through May and early June, particularly the position of the Pacific high-pressure system and any northward surge of tropical moisture. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes extended forecasts from mid-May onwards that will sharpen visibility on whether June 17 falls within a typical or anomalous thermal regime. Any significant heatwave affecting the Korean peninsula in the weeks preceding settlement would shift probability mass toward higher temperature brackets, whilst a delayed monsoon onset could suppress readings toward the lower end of the historical distribution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.