Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul is bracing for its hottest June in 52 years, with daytime highs on 19 June already reaching 35.6°C, a record not seen since 1958[2]. This extreme backdrop frames the current market probability of 0% YES for the highest temperature on 25 June, which appears deeply contrarian given the historical trend. In typical June weather, Seoul’s daily highs climb from 77°F to 81°F, rarely exceeding 87°F, yet the recent surge suggests the consensus may be underestimating the likelihood of temperatures hitting the 26°C or 27°C ranges[3]. Polymarket traders currently assign 37% probability to 26°C and 33% to 27°C, indicating a clear value spot for those betting against the 0% crowd-implied figure[1].

Traders should monitor the end of monsoon season and rising humidity levels, which the Korea Meteorological Administration warns will increase the chance of higher-than-average temperatures in August, with a 50% probability[2]. While the settlement window closes on 25 June 2026, the immediate catalyst is the lingering heatwave from mid-June, which set a new all-time record of 41.0°C in Hongcheon, Gangwon Province[4]. With no major weather announcements expected before 25 June, the key dependency remains the persistence of this heat pattern, which could push Incheon Intl Airport Station temperatures into the 26–27°C range, offering a contrarian angle against the current 0% consensus[5]. The value lies in betting that the 26°C or 27°C outcomes will prevail, as the historical data and recent records strongly support this trajectory.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.